Reading a rate spike: real demand or a data ghost?

A lane jumps forty cents overnight and every load board alert you own goes off. Before you deadhead two hundred miles to chase it, run the spike through three questions.

1. Is the volume there, or just the rate?

A real market move shows both higher rates and higher posting counts. A handful of desperate loads at a big number — with thin volume behind them — is a data ghost. You'll arrive to find the three good loads covered and the lane back to normal.

2. What caused it — and does the cause repeat?

• Weather event: short spike, dies in 48-72 hours. Chase only if you're already close.
• Plant shutdown / surge shipping: can run for weeks. Worth positioning.
• Seasonal open (produce, apples, retail peak): the start of a pattern. This is the one you reposition for.
• No visible cause: assume ghost until a second day confirms it.

3. What does the reload look like?

The spike lane pays once. The market it dumps you into decides your week. A $4.00/mi load into a weekend black hole is still a bad week. Check the load-to-truck ratio at the destination before you commit — position TOWARD hot zones, deliver INTO them, reload OUT of them.

The test in one line: volume + repeatable cause + live destination = go. Anything less, let someone else chase it.